ARGA News

2025 Economy

by Kenneth Graves, Chairman
Arkansas Rice Growers Association
Published September 8, 2025

A lot of people that keep up with the news and economy know about the situation that the farmers are in at this time.  And the reason for that is the drop in market prices in the crops that they grow.  In a nutshell, that is the main facts that I have seen concerning this problem.  So, let’s bust that nutshell open and pour out the facts and tell people what could happen complete with some numbers and the domino effect it will have.

On August 16th, I was contacted by Mike Merritt in DeWitt, Arkansas, a crop consultant who owns FARM INC., made me aware of some very disturbing news.  With the bad outlook for farmers and the markets for prices for their crops, he told me that a couple of banks in different parts of the state, had told one of their customers, that it looked like 30%-40% of their farmer customers will not be able to farm next year unless something out of the ordinary happened in favor of the farmers.  So, that information came from two different banks, one located in the north and one in the south of the state.  After talking to another banker face to face, he confirmed that number is very real. But maybe a more realistic number could be 25%-33%, which is 1/4th to 1/3rd of our farmers.  Now I am only talking about rice, soybeans, and corn farmers. I can't speak for other farmers with different crops, but they use some of the same inputs also.  With those numbers out there confirmed by a few banks, lets kick the can down the road some more.  I am not saying that number is the same at all ag related banks.  Some could be lower, and some could be higher.  But when the numbers are the same at the banks that have been contacted, this is getting scary.  IF, that percentage of farmers "get out of farming," across the eastern part of Arkansas, here is where the dominos start falling. 

In the past, when a farmer decides to retire from farming, there is always someone who is looking to pick up extra ground.  That may not be the case next year.  With another uncertain year ahead, that farm could possibly not be rented or leased out, not knowing for sure what lies ahead.  And adding insult to injury, when that farmer has his farm auction to sell his equipment, it probably will not bring what the equipment is really worth, at least to the owner.  With that in mind, IF that happens to all of the farmers who "get out" after this year, what happens to the small farming towns and communities that depend on those farmer monies to support their businesses so they can make a living.  Like chemical, fertilizer, fuel, equipment dealers, hardware stores, but also the other businesses that a lot of rural towns have.  The farmer problem goes much deeper, that no one is talking about. How long can they last until they have to close and move on to whatever.  Some communities don't have much to start with as far as businesses, what about them?  Some farmers wanted to get out of farming last year but were afraid they wouldn't get much for their equipment, so they stayed in for another year.  There is one thing about a farmer, they are one of the most optimistic people on the planet, always thinking that hopefully it will be better next year.  But optimism only goes so far. 

I know with the passage of the "BIG BEAUTIFUL BILL", there is some emergency money for farmers next year, NEXT YEAR.  Farmers need something this year, and now.  At this time, I am sure any non-farming person is probably saying, well they want another handout.  Know this, The Farm Bill is not a stand-alone bill, it is part of the Nutrition Bill.  Unless it has changed, the Farm Bill is only 2%-3% of that bill, money wise.  A farmer is not like other businesses, we can't set our price for our customers when they get ready to sell.  We can't pass on the price increases to the consumers, we have to absorb it.  It is like we have to ask, “what will you give me for it”.  And by that, we have to take what the market says it is worth.   To give you a good example, John F. Kennedy once said, "a farmer buys retail, sells wholesale, and pays the freight both ways". Farming is a crap shoot.  You gotta love it to do it.  But times like these, not much fun in it right now. 

In a conversation with some ag lenders, one asked another what his thoughts were as to what the farmers needed bushel wise to make it this year.  The three numbers he gave him were 100-300-300, Soybeans-Rice-cCorn.  Ball park averages on those three are around 56-166-175.   Those are close I believe, but not close to what is needed.  I hate to be Johnny Raincloud with this information, but I'm saying what no one is saying.  I sure hope I'm wrong.  I farmed for 49 years and had both good and bad years.  I remember in the late 70's or early 80's with the deficiency payments.  We were offered $1.35-$1.70 cents a bushel for our rice, and the deficiency payments were enough to get you to $3.25-$3.50 a bushel.  Times and costs were different then from now. 

I know up in the Northeast part of the state, a lot of rice farmers were hit with a lot of bad weather like rain.  Too much rain.  So bad that a lot of flooding took place, and the water didn’t drain off in time to plant.  I am told there are a lot of unplanted fields in that area, due to the flooding.  If there is an exodus of farmers next year, low prices for crops, it might get worse, and not just for farmers.

So, at this time, for any farmers that have never called their elected officials, state or U.S. about anything that bothers you, now would be a good time to stand up for yourself and get involved.  This involves you, don’t count on someone to do it for you.  A lot of calls make a difference.  And call more than once.  Blow the phones up with calls.  It is now or never for some, at least try.  This letter will be shared with media and politicians to try to help this situation that might occur, to make them aware about an unspoken possible problem.

Kenneth Graves, Chairman
Arkansas Rice Growers Association
arkricegrowers.com

870-509-1050

Outraged Farmers Blame Ag Monopolies as Catastrophic Collapse Looms

by Chris Bennett, Farm Journal AgWeb
Updated September 09, 2025 12:00 PM
Posted with author permission.

Farmers are not crying wolf. The wolf is real and right outside the door in the form of generational collapse.

The inescapable crop math of sustained crippling commodity prices and high input costs has many growers screaming for immediate relief, potentially via aid payments in late 2025 or early 2026. However, bailouts are Band-Aids over bullet holes.

Alarm has turned to extreme despair on many operations. On Sept. 2, 2025, a telltale farm meeting went nuclear. Field representatives from the offices of Sen. Tom Cotton, Sen. John Boozman and Rep. Rick Crawford, along with a rep sent by Gov. Sarah Sanders, initially intended to speak with a handful of growers in Brookland, Ark.

Instead, 400-plus farmers packed the house to overflow on a Tuesday — despite the pressing demands of rice and corn harvest and a mere three days’ notice — and unleashed a chain of grievances.

Where does blame lie? Where to begin digging for a long-term solution?

Amid the fallout of the Sept. 2 meeting, three farmers sound off on markets, monopolies, moratoriums and mismanagement in U.S. agriculture. They spare no sacred cows.

Denial ain’t just a river in Egypt, says Adam Chappell. “Year after year of sweeping all this s*** under the rug and pretending it’s not happening has got us to this point. Years of barely squeaking by, surviving with a bailout and then doing it all again. That is the definition of insanity.”

Growing 2,400 acres of soybeans, rice, and corn in east Arkansas’ Woodruff County, Chappell, 46, accuses USDA of head-in-the-sand policy: “I’m sick of USDA graphs saying agriculture income is set to rise. They’re baking cattle and coming payments into their recipe and pretending things are good. Bulls***.”

“This is the worst agriculture economy of my lifetime over at least the past three years, and right this minute, guys are going under — as in bankruptcy or leaving the farm,” he exclaims. “The solution is supposedly another bailout or a gap payment the following year? Wake the hell up: Where do you think that money is gonna go? It won’t go to farmers. It’ll go into supplier’s pockets.”

The entire agriculture industry — a bedrock of U.S. security — rests squarely on the shoulders of the American farmer. Ironically, that same farmer is the only player in the ag chain who cannot pass costs down the ladder.

Blame partially belongs on “Big Ag,” Chappell contends.

“Seed, chemicals or fertilizer, it’s all in the hands of a few companies that are the only game in town. You want to fix farming? Start a federal investigation on those big companies. Booming quarterly earnings and big stock dividends make no sense when farmers can’t pinch a penny.”

Farmers gathering at the benchmark Sept. 2 farm meeting in Brookland.

“If corn prices were to suddenly jump this month, nitrogen prices will magically rise the following year,” he continues. “If soybean prices explode to $15 tomorrow, a bag of beans will climb to $90. Guaranteed. Potash will hit $1,000. The monopoly problem is real.”

Behind closed doors, away from microphones and cameras, Chappell says federal politicians acknowledge “monopoly influence.”

“They all tell me they’re aware of a monopoly problem, and they don’t deny it exists. But they do nothing. Instead, we get bailouts and the money slips right out of our hands and into the big corporations we owe the money to — the monopolies. Meanwhile, those same corporations lobby for us to get the bailouts. Get it?”

“This is real talk,” Chappell describes. “This is what farmers know and experience. You can bet your ass, the monopolies will get their money. If you think otherwise, you’ve got blinders on.”

The Sept. 2 farm meeting, held a stone’s throw outside Jonesboro at Woods Chapel Baptist, was monumental, says retired Dewitt grower Kenneth Graves, 71. “I’d say 400 people or so showed up, maybe more. We’re talking about people standing outside the building in the middle of harvest. That tells you all you need to know.”

Dwarfing expectations, the line of overflow attendees wrapped around the building on Sept. 2.

Graves, chairman of the Arkansas Rice Growers Association, understands severe hardship. He farmed through the anemic ag crisis of the 1980s. However, the current unrest is a “coming disaster” unlike anything he’s witnessed across a 50-year career: “I’ve never seen this kinda look in farmers’ eyes. It’s fear. And it’s based in undeniable facts.”

In August 2025, Graves sent an open letter to media and politicians, pleading for attention to eye-popping numbers. “My letter told what things are like right now. In our geography, it looks like you need to yield 100-300-300 to stay ahead,” Graves describes. “That’s 100-bushel beans, 300-bushel rice and 300-bushel corn. Basic Arkansas averages are 56-bushel beans, 166-bushel rice and 175-bushel corn. In a nutshell, we are going over a cliff. Banks are forecasting farm bankruptcies at 25% to 40%, and the dirty secret is out. Everyone knows it; everyone feels it.”

How does the industry even begin to crawl out of the hole? Start with markets, Graves urges. “Our international competitors play under the table and get hidden subsidies. The whole dynamic is off. At every level of agriculture, there must be a reckoning. That certainly includes seed, chemical and machinery companies. Back off.”

Death of a thousand cuts, according to Graves: “It’s been building over time and now it’s on the doorstep. You can argue that guys will be able to get back in their fields next spring, but that’s just denying the inevitable. Whether this year or next year or the next, there’s a crash coming.”

“In a nutshell, we are going over a cliff,” says Kenneth Graves. “Banks are forecasting farm bankruptcies at 25% to 40%, and the dirty secret is out. Everyone knows it; everyone feels it.”

Graves advocates for immediate political intervention. “I’m urging legislators at all levels to act now,” he says. “We’re talking about our food and agriculture security, and when that tanks, the economic effect will spill over every rural region in the country.

“Remember when that Chinese spy balloon flew over the U.S. in 2023, and our politicians did nothing? They made a lot of noise and acted too late, shooting it down after it collected data across the country,” Graves adds. “It’s past time to act. Our politicians either recognize this now or let us be some other country’s economic hostage later.”

Adios to fifth- and sixth-generation farmers?

Yes, says Bailey Buffalo, 40, owner of Buffalo Grain Systems in Jonesboro, and president of Farm Protection Alliance.

“Horror stories. The pain is unreal. Worst farming situation I’ve seen in my life,” Buffalo says. “Look at Extension [University of Arkansas] numbers — corn growers losing $240 per acre; soybeans losing $144 per acre; and rice losing $380 per acre. The cotton growers may be worst of all.”

Agriculture’s handbrake must be pulled, says Bailey Buffalo, with an economic reversal contingent on a deep look at consolidation, moratoriums, and diversification.

Storms can be weathered during agricultural tumult, Buffalo maintains — except when a thumb rests on the scale. Consolidation, he says, has turned a market rut into a debacle.

“Basic macroeconomics (CR4) tells us that if the top four competitors in any sector control more than 40% of the market, abuses become likely and that sector is approaching a monopolistic risk. That’s where I believe we’re at in farming,” he explains. “We can’t climb out of this mess partly because we’re at the mercy of agriculture monopolies.

“Take corn, cotton, rice and soybean seed. They’re at 70% to 90% control by corporate cartels, in my opinion. Take fertilizer where the top four players control about 82% of the market,” he adds. “If 40% of any sector is a monopoly risk, then what the hell do our agriculture percentages tell us?”

Despite Buffalo’s alarm, the input market contains exceptions, he notes: “I can name small seed suppliers and fertilizer suppliers who are providing very high-quality products at fractions of what those much larger corporations are charging. The farmers just have to put the extra work into finding them and into getting their orders in early as possible. They are proving that it’s possible for small operations to sneak into corners of the market.”

Yet, exceptions do not move the overall dial. “Farmers are literally losing money per acre while Big Agriculture is making hundreds of millions of dollars and more,” Buffalo says. “How can that be sustainable? You can make all the excuses or justifications you like, but any fair-minded person knows the situation is way out of balance.”

“At every level of agriculture, there must be a reckoning,” says Kenneth Graves. “That certainly includes seed, chemical, and machinery companies. Back off.”

Bailout cash is a “gross Band-Aid,” according to Buffalo.

“The subsidies send farmers back to the pit, over and over. The money trickles to lenders, loans, suppliers, banks or somewhere else in chain. Bailouts are the same as kicking the can down the road,” he adds.

That “can” has grown exceedingly heavy and the end of the road is in sight, Buffalo says: “Some people blame tariffs. Some blame the current president. Some blame the last president. Some blame other politicians. In the background of all this blame, nobody is looking at where farmers spend their money. Farmers pay monopolies and often feel they have no choice.”

Agriculture’s handbrake must be pulled, Buffalo says, with an economic reversal contingent on a deep look at consolidation, moratoriums and diversification — via both a federal and state lens. In his opinion, the following four changes are in order:

1. Start with monopolies. “State constitutions have anti-trust legislation. Create smoke at the state level and force USDA and the feds to follow.”

2. Put an indefinite moratorium on all mergers and acquisitions in the food and ag sectors. “End consolidation and demand long-lasting change.”

3. Get a handle on D.C. lobbyists. According to a 2024 report, Cultivating Control: Lobbying by the agribusiness sector has steadily increased: In just the last five years, the agribusiness sector’s annual lobbying expenditures have risen 22%, from $145 million in 2019 to $177 million in 2023. And each year, agribusiness spends more on federal lobbying than the oil and gas industry and the defense sector.

A five-year “cooling off” lobbying period should be set in stone for any government official exiting office, Buffalo says: “Defense, SEC going to Wall Street, any of them, including agriculture. You should never, never be allowed to retire from an ag committee in Congress and then run over to a board at Tyson, Cargill, ADM, John Deere or any other company.”

4. The grain industry must diversify. “I think diversification must be part of any solution. I’m talking about an effort to grow all our food in this country. Our grain goes to feed and ethanol, but we need a structure to grow our own edible food as well, and protect our national security like never before.”

The entire agriculture industry—a bedrock of U.S. security—rests squarely on the shoulders of the American farmer. Ironically, that same farmer is the only player in the ag chain who cannot pass costs down the ladder.

At the Sept. 2 spillover meeting in northeast Arkansas, Buffalo was present, listening to the plight of the common grower. The meeting was noted by media and politicians as evidence of a dire “agriculture crisis.” Ironically, no such crisis exists, Buffalo asserts.

“They don’t get it and therefore they can’t properly find the solution,” he says. “Right now, if I was to walk into Congress and ask all the senators and reps, ‘Who thinks the agriculture industry is hurting to the point of collapse?’ all the hands would go up. Instead, the question should be, ‘Who thinks farmers are hurting to the point of collapse?’”

“There’s a giant difference between the two questions, and that difference is indicative of the separation between local Ag and Big Ag,” Buffalo concludes. “Farmers, not the giant agriculture manufacturers, are the ones hurting to the point of going belly up. There’s no solving any of this until that difference is recognized.”

For more from Chris Bennett (@ChrisBennettMS or cbennett@farmjournal.com or 662-592-1106).